Is it Time to Hit the Panic Button?

AP David KohlTo say the first two weeks of the preseason have not gone according to plan for the Jets is a massive understatement. They are currently the only team in the league that has yet to register a touchdown and there have been a litany of issues that have led to that damning statistic. While the offense has been cause for concern, it isn’t the only phase of the game the Jets have struggled with. Special teams, typically a strength, have been awful as well, coming at the detriment of both the offense and defense at times.

There are plenty of causes for concern, but to what extent? Remember, the Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the preseason in 2008 before their historical 0-16 regular season, so what has happened so far cannot be viewed as gospel. With the regular season right around the corner, it is time to start evaluating these problems. On a scale of one (barely worth discussing) to ten (sound the alarms, call the cavalry, hide your wife and kids) lets take a look at how deep the Jets current issues run.

Quarterback Play:
The Story So Far:
Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow are proving the theory of “when you have two, you really have none” correct as it relates to quarterbacks. Sanchez has played safety-first football, averaging only 4.7 yards per attempt, a number that would have ranked him 20th in the league in 2011… IN YARDS PER CARRY. For this offense to move, that number will have to improve dramatically. To make matters worse, even in an ultra conservative offense, Sanchez threw an ugly pick six last week, something that has plagued him throughout his career. Tebow has been even worse; completing only 9 of 22 passes for 4.4 yards per attempt, while missing badly on several elementary throws. He is still clearly a work in progress as a passer.

Reasons For Optimism:

Despite the low YPA, Sanchez has been very efficient so far; completing 13 of his 17 passes. He has looked much more comfortable in his progressions, checking down to tight ends and running backs when his first option was covered. These were both major problems for Sanchez last year and he has seemed to make a concerted effort to improve. It is also impossible to evaluate Sanchez without discussing the lack of talent around him. His primary target and the one proven veteran presence they have at receiver, Santonio Holmes, has been out the entire preseason with back and rib injuries. Jeremy Kerley and Chaz Schilens have missed time as well, leaving the Jets with three healthy receivers, two of which are rookies (Stephen Hill and Jordan White) and the other, with a grand total of 10 career receptions (Patrick Turner.) The lineup he has around him will be dramatically different on September 9th when these games start to count.

Tebow’s performance is equally difficult to judge. While he is the team’s backup quarterback, he wasn’t brought in to run a conventional offense. He was brought in to run the wildcat, to be a force in short yardage and goal line situations, to catch opposing defenses off guard. Even if he were to take the reigns from Sanchez at some point this season, the offense would likely conform to Tebow’s skills, not the other way around.

Panic Scale: 2 – There are too many variables out of their control right now to peg the quarterbacks as the problem with this offense. They’ll be ready come week one.

 
Wide Receiver Depth:
The Story So Far:
These first two issues go hand in hand as the big play potential of this offense has been completely hamstrung by health issues. Holmes, while he has returned to practice, is not expected to play Sunday against the Panthers, meaning that in all likelihood, he will not have an opportunity to play with Sanchez until the opener. Given their communication problems last year and the new offense being installed by Tony Sparano, it could take a while for the duo to get on the same page.

Reasons For Optimism:
None of the injuries are long term causes of concern. Both Holmes and Kerley are fully expected to be ready for the regular season and Schilens is firmly on the roster bubble. Sanchez noted that tight end Dustin Keller has been one of the standouts of camp and he seems poised for a big season. It is also important to remember Ryan and Sparano’s “Ground and Pound” philosophy here. The Jets will not be heavily reliant on the passing game and they will rarely spread the field with four or five receivers. When everyone is healthy, the talent they have can be enough to get them by

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Panic Scale: 4 – There are a lot of if’s in the receiving corps. The passing game can succeed IF Holmes and Kerley come back and pick up the offense quickly, IF Stephen Hill can show poise beyond his rookie status and emerge as a true number two option and legitimate deep threat, IF Keller can make the leap toward the elite class of tight ends. I think at least a few of those shake out in the Jets’ favor.

Special Teams:
The Story So Far:
Uncharacteristically sloppy play and punting have been real problems so far. A blocked punt in the end zone here, a roughing the kicker after a 3 and out there, a holding on a kickoff that pinned the offense back at their own 5 yard line. These were all critical errors that have come back to bite the other phases of the game. Punter T.J. Conley has been inconsistent as well and had a meltdown to close of the Giants game, shanking punts of 19 and 23 yards and closing with another ugly punt that took a fortuitous bounce. The Jets defense seems poised to be elite but they can only do so much when opposing offenses are starting in their territory.

Reasons For Optimism:
Mike Westhoff has been at the helm of this unit for over a decade and has typically been the architect of elite special teams play year in and year out. The mental errors in kick coverage and returns should be worked out by the opener. Despite the ugly end to his night, Conley averaged 41 yards per punt on 9 attempts and pinned the Giants on the 1-yard line at the end of the second quarter. When you’re punting as much as the Jets have over the first two games, you’re bound to have a few stinkers, right?

Panic Scale: 5 – I’m splitting the difference here. The rest of the unit will work itself out as it has throughout Westhoff’s tenure, but Conley had these same issues with inconsistency last year while the man he replaced, Steve Weatherford, emerged as a true weapon for the Giants. I was shocked he wasn’t replaced in the offseason and will be equally surprised if they don’t bring in some competition for him soon.

The Running Game:
The Story So Far:
Overshadowed by the ineptitude of the passing game, the Jets have only rushed for an average of 90.5 yards in their first two preseason games, good for 23rd in the league. More disturbing is the per carry averages of their running backs. Workhorse Shonn Greene has averaged 2.9 yards per carry, Bilal Powell has averaged 3.4, and Joe McKnight has averaged 3.5. Those numbers are unacceptable, especially when your offensive philosophy revolves around running the football.

Reasons For Optimism:
Greene averaged 4.2 yards per carry last year and broke a couple of 5+ yard runs against the Giants. He is traditionally a slow starter, but improved as last season went on, his first as the lead back. Despite it not translating to live action yet, reports out of camp have been glowing about Powell. Also, the eventual implementation of the Wildcat package should add an element of excitement to the currently dormant ground game.

Panic Scale: 7 – It’s hard to not be very concerned when the cornerstone of the offense has fallen so flat. If this was just a preseason aberration it would be one thing, but the running game began falling off last season dropping to 22nd in rushing last year from 4th in 2010. After a blazing start to his career, leading the NFL in playoff rushing yards as a rookie in 2009, Shonn Greene has underwhelmed. He needs to take the next step and become an elite back for the Ground and Pound to truly be effective.

Offensive Line:
The Story So Far:
Jets quarterbacks have taken 12 sacks in two preseason games, including five in just three quarters for Sanchez. The main culprit was once again Wayne Hunter, who allowed 2.5 sacks and another that was negated by a penalty. Worst of all, he looked like a beaten man, much like he did throughout last season. It can’t all fall on Hunter’s shoulders though as the line as a whole has failed to get a push for the running game, most notably on a failed 4th and 1 run by John Conner. The basis of many of the Jets’ offensive problems starts with a line that has been unable to protect Sanchez and create holes for their running backs. If this isn’t corrected, it will be a long season for Gang Green.

Reasons For Optimism:
Despite their slow start, the offensive line still boasts two of the best players in the NFL at their respective positions, center Nick Mangold and left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson. Guard Brandon Moore has also been a stable presence on the line for years as well, and has been a huge part of the running game’s success in 2009 and 2010.

 
The most important development happened on Thursday when Hunter was officially benched in favor of Austin Howard. Howard may not be a major upgrade (or even an upgrade at all) but a change was needed and he will get a chance to prove his worth on Sunday in his first start against the Panthers.

Panic Scale: 10 – The play of the offensive line will be the biggest factor in the progression of Mark Sanchez and Shonn Greene. So far, they have failed miserably in a trend that dates back to last season. Could things dramatically turn with the benching of Hunter? Maybe, but if Austin Howard was the answer, he would have been starting from the beginning and the team wouldn’t have brought in Jeff Otah. Until Howard proves that he can be a stabilizing force for the offensive line (or Hunter makes an unexpected turnaround), the offense’s struggles will continue when it starts to count.

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